U.S. retailers recorded roughly 4% year-over-year sales growth from November 1 to December 21, 2025, based on preliminary transaction data from Visa and Mastercard. Consumers balanced constrained budgets against demand for electronics upgrades and clothing refreshes.
Visa reported 4.2% growth in retail spending excluding autos, gasoline, and restaurants — slightly below its October forecast of 4.6% for the full November-December period. Mastercard, including food services, posted 3.9% growth, exceeding its prior 3.6% estimate. Both figures are nominal and unadjusted for inflation.
Recent U.S. CPI inflation has run near 3% year-over-year. Subtracting this yields approximate real growth of 1-1.3%, signaling volume expansion remains limited as price increases continue to erode purchasing power.
Shoppers acted deliberately: many used AI-driven price comparison tools and hunted early promotions to extend discretionary spending. Early deals and online convenience drove e-commerce growth ahead of brick-and-mortar, though in-store transactions still dominated at 73% versus 27% online.
Category leaders:
Mastercard noted seasonal discounts and colder weather spurred wardrobe updates, while jewelry sales also rose.
Outlook for Christmas and New Year's Eve
Data covers activity only through December 21. Christmas Day (December 25) and New Year's Eve (December 31) remain. Last-minute purchases typically include gifts, food, beverages, dining out, and entertainment items.
Early shopping concentration this season, however, points to a moderated late surge. Visa expects full-period results to approach its 4.6% nominal forecast. Broader industry projections from the National Retail Federation target 3.7-4.2% growth for November-December, with total sales potentially topping $1 trillion for the first time.
Real terms leave consumer spending expansion modest, consistent with cautious household behavior in a higher-rate environment.
Visa reported 4.2% growth in retail spending excluding autos, gasoline, and restaurants — slightly below its October forecast of 4.6% for the full November-December period. Mastercard, including food services, posted 3.9% growth, exceeding its prior 3.6% estimate. Both figures are nominal and unadjusted for inflation.
Recent U.S. CPI inflation has run near 3% year-over-year. Subtracting this yields approximate real growth of 1-1.3%, signaling volume expansion remains limited as price increases continue to erode purchasing power.
Shoppers acted deliberately: many used AI-driven price comparison tools and hunted early promotions to extend discretionary spending. Early deals and online convenience drove e-commerce growth ahead of brick-and-mortar, though in-store transactions still dominated at 73% versus 27% online.
Category leaders:
- Electronics (TVs, smartphones): +5.8%
- Clothing and accessories: +5.3%
Mastercard noted seasonal discounts and colder weather spurred wardrobe updates, while jewelry sales also rose.
Outlook for Christmas and New Year's Eve
Data covers activity only through December 21. Christmas Day (December 25) and New Year's Eve (December 31) remain. Last-minute purchases typically include gifts, food, beverages, dining out, and entertainment items.
Early shopping concentration this season, however, points to a moderated late surge. Visa expects full-period results to approach its 4.6% nominal forecast. Broader industry projections from the National Retail Federation target 3.7-4.2% growth for November-December, with total sales potentially topping $1 trillion for the first time.
Real terms leave consumer spending expansion modest, consistent with cautious household behavior in a higher-rate environment.